Star touchdown droughts likely won’t last

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Not all trends are the same. Style trends, for example, come and go with the seasons. Linguistic trends are constantly changing – like, “rad” is “cheugy”, but “cheugy” is “bussin”. No cap. But, statistical trends? We think these are “on”.

One thing about statistical trends: they tend to revert to averages – highs regress towards the average, lows revert towards the middle. One stat we pay special attention to for fantasy purposes is touchdown frequency. TD rates can predict which players are scoring too often and which should find the end zone more in the coming weeks.

Players who have too few hits, they don’t have a large enough sample size, which makes their data “sus”. Much of this will focus on the stars.

We always want to trade for a player just before they get hot. And a low TD rate may suggest a player owes the football gods touchdowns. Jonathan Taylor is a “high key” anomaly that stands out. He’s had to deal with health issues and stay on the pitch, but he’s only had one touchdown this season despite 123 touches. If he was playing at an average level, he would have seven more touchdowns and 42 more fantasy points.

Even with bad QB play, if Taylor is healthy and stays healthy, and he continues to get the kind of volume he has in the past, there’s no reason to think that he can’t at least reach score averages, which means his fantasy production is due for a slight uptick. Given his health issues, now would be a good time to target him in trades while his value is “salty”.

chris godvin
Chris Godwin is yet to score this season.
PA

Likewise, Chris Godwin and Diontae Johnson are yet to score touchdowns this season, despite at least 45 touches. Based on league averages — one TD every 15.8 touches for Fantasy Flex options — these two dynamic receivers should now have three scores.

If they had, instead of “cringing” WR47 and WR34 ratings, respectively, Godwin and Johnson would be WR30 and 29. And that’s if they were just “basic,” not “extra.”

Not all finds will be bargains. There are some that perform well enough and with enough name recognition to make it expensive to acquire, but worth it – Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Tyreek Hill, Dameon Pierce and Rhamondre Stevenson. The numbers suggest that even Joe Mixon (after his five-touchdown day!) and Christian McCaffrey have a bigger lead.

Now, that doesn’t work for everyone. We don’t pay too much attention to the low TD rates for players like Devin Singletary and David Montgomery, as they are often “ghosted” on the goal line in favor of quarterback runs.

And with the good comes the bad, so be aware of some possible fantasy future “Karens” who might be a little too allowed at TD right now – like Austin Ekeler, Nick Chubb, Mecole Hardman and AJ Brown.

If you want a fantastic “fire” future, you need to find guys who are just “average” right now. TD fares may be the “tea” that helps build that “thicc” list.

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