Match-by-match FPI predictions for the 2022 schedule


As July continues to tick by, we are getting closer and closer to the end of the offseason and the long-awaited start of the 2022 season.

For the Tigers, that means the first look at new head coach Brian Kelly, who was hired this offseason after a 12-year stint at Notre Dame, where he is the winningest coach in program history. LSU has reached a nadir the past two seasons after winning a national title in 2019, but with a new coach and a promising roster (albeit with some questions), hopes are high this fall.

The schedule is tough because it’s every fall when you compete in SEC West, but ESPN’s Football Power Index likes LSU’s chances of a solid finish. The FPI is high on the Tigers overall, ranking them 10th in the nation at the start of the season.

Here’s how ESPN’s analytics system thinks every game will play out for Kelly’s team this fall.

September 4 vs. Florida State Seminoles (at New Orleans)

Doug Engle / Ocala Star-Banner

Win probability: 71.0%

Counting Running Records: 1-0

September 10 vs. Southern Jaguars

Tim Heitman – USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 99.5%

Counting Running Records: 2-0

September 17 vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Justin Ford – USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 68.2%

Counting Running Records: 3-0

September 24 vs. New Mexico Lobos

Brian Losness – USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 98.6%

Counting Running Records: 4-0

October 1 at Auburn Tigers

Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Win probability: 42.6%

Counting Running Records: 4-1

October 8 vs. Tennessee Volunteers

Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Win probability: 67.7%

Counting Running Records: 5-1

October 15 at Florida Gators

Stephen Lew – USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 55.3%

Counting Running Records: 6-1

October 22 vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Syndication: The Knoxville News-Sentinel

Win probability: 63.0%

Counting Running Records: 7-1

Nov. 5 vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Butch Dill – USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 18.5%

Counting Running Records: 7-2

Nov. 12 at Arkansas Razorbacks

Nelson Chenault – USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 54.2%

Counting Running Records: 8-2

Nov. 19 vs. UAB Blazers

Peter Thomas – USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 88.4%

Counting Running Records: 9-2

Nov. 26 at Texas A&M Aggies

Thomas Shea – USA TODAY Sports

Win probability: 44.5%

Counting Running Records: 9-3


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