Fantasy football matches to target or avoid for week 16

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Time-adjusted fancy points, or aFPA, are 4for4’s response to biased statistics. By breaking down the stigma, we can level the playing field and compare head-to-head confrontations. As the season progresses the data will change and from that point the numbers displayed will be based on a 10 week rolling data set.

Each week until the end of the fantasy football season, I will be reviewing which matchups to target or avoid based on updated aFPA data.

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Match Against Target: Jamaal Williams / Craig Reynolds @ Atlanta Falcons

Reynolds went from Create-A-Player at week 16 to add / must start. jamaal williams was removed from the reserve / COVID-19 list on December 20, but it remains to be seen whether the virus will slow down its conditioning. Lions coach Dan Campbell could also bring Williams back to his usual role (making him flex-worthy) and let Reynolds be the By André Swift for one more week. The Falcons are 25th in the AFPA against opposing ball carriers.

Game to Avoid: Justin Fields @ Seattle Seahawks

It takes a special coach to put your quarterback in decline. Matt Nagy is that kind of special. Fields threw 200 yards longer than his opponent Kirk Cousins ​​during Monday Night Football and always looked worse. His only touchdown was at the end of time and he lost another fumble. It was against one of the worst passing defenses in football.

Seattle is eighth in AFPA against quarterbacks and first against wide receivers. Fields could be thrown to Darnell mooney and Dazz New like his two best spreaders with Allen Robinson (COVID-19) and Checkerboard Byrd (bad) off the radar. The Seahawks are an escape defense and should be attacked on the ground, assuming Nagy still has brain cells.

Match Avoid: Duke Johnson @ New Orleans Saints

He is Duke Johnson SZN!

Not so fast, my friend.

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The New Orleans Saints have just sucked off the offensive life of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and are now getting an improving, but mediocre, Dolphins team. Johnson had every reason to run as if his job depended on it and is now testing the Saints’ run defense (AFPA 4th against running backs). I’m so happy for Duke Johnson (poor Myles Gaskin), but her honeymoon with the Dolphins ends in week 16.

Target Match: Tyler Johnson @ Carolina Panthers

The passing game in Tampa took massive hits with injuries to Chris godwin (ACL) and Mike evans (tendon). Antonio brown will be back in week 16, but he can’t field three positions at once. Tyler johnson “Fills” the role of Godwin after leaving the Week 15 game and is expected to continue to do so in the future. Johnson has seen the most work this season among the Tampa Deep Broads (at least 59% of snaps played in four of the last five games) and has a chance to be a PPR savior. The Panthers are halfway against wide receivers according to AFPA (13th), but an injury to Leonard Fournette could force Bruce Arians to trust named running backs Ronald jones and Ke’Shawn Vaughn.

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Johnson is a great addition to your playoff list.

Matchup To Target: Kyle Rudolph (and possibly Evan Engram) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Our favorite Christmas-themed NFL player didn’t get a chance to play Eagles Week 12 when Evan engram and Chris Myarick combined for 5-48-1. The Giants’ tight ends are low floor and medium ceiling options with injuries and COVID-19 causing a mind-boggling rollover of the roster. Philly is very generous with tight ends, allowing 16.7 calendar-adjusted fantasy points (half-PPR) per game, the maximum of 2.0 points per game. In five of their last six games, the Eagles have allowed at least one reception and 20 receiving yards on tight ends per game.

Jake Fromm and Mike Glennon aren’t NFL quarterbacks, but even they can find Engram and Rudolph desperate with their 5.5 aDOT (or less).

This article originally appeared in full form on 4for4.com

Jeff has been practicing fantasy sports since 2001. He has been covering fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro and amateur levels for almost a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made his name in college, Jeff enjoys running (establishing it) and then doing nothing.

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